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Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff
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In 1908, Ford Motor Company rolled out its first Model T, and it cost $850. Fourteen years later, thanks to the efficiencies of assembly line manufacturing, the price dropped to $250. Therefore, in only 14 years, the price dropped 340%. Everybody thought that was just wonderful.
Now the Chinese are doing the same thing to electric vehicle (EV) prices. As you can see in the above graph, prices have been dropping every year since 2002, except in 2022, they went up about 1%. The prices have fallen through the roof just in this last year. Right now, BYD, headquartered in my former hometown of Shenzhen, where we lived for three years, they’re just slaughtering Toyota and VW with steep price cuts.
No wonder Nissan and Honda are in merger talks. Ford and GM will have to follow suit. You can see why. From Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-scraps-low-cost-car-plans-amid-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-2024-04-05/),
Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car plans in a decision representing an abandonment of a longstanding goal that Tesla chief Elon Musk has often characterized as its primary mission: affordable electric cars for the masses
Meaning: Tesla can’t compete on price.The Chinese have the economy-class EV market sewn up.
There are more than 100 models of EV cars in China. I will show you pictures of some of them in the print version of this show. I reported on this during my last stay in China in October (https://twitter.com/44_Days/status/1656588673813721089?s=20) . They’re everywhere. You go around China, especially Shenzhen, where 90-95% of the cars are electric, and I’ve only seen one Western brand EV, a Mercedes. Everything else, all the Western cars were gas or diesel. They’re going to get slaughtered by the Chinese and lose the Chinese market because they are not producing electric cars.
BYD, this Shenzhen company is the world’s biggest EV manufacturer. They have a new car called Seagull. It’s a hatchback. It sells for under $10,000. And they’re not the only ones. Other manufacturers are also rolling out $10,000 electric cars. Now you can see why countries like Ethiopia have announced that they will no longer allow gas and electric cars to be imported in the country. They can only import electric, because Chinese EVs are cheaper than gas or diesel from the United States or Europe. These $10,000 EV cars are $40,000 cheaper than the average price of an EV in the US or in Europe.
Of course, now it’s bad. China is destroying the electric car market around the world because the West cannot compete. Thus, people like Elon Musk, Michael Bloomberg and all the billionaire oligarchs are saying sanctions and tariffs, we’ve got to stop them. Thus, the United States is offering EV tax breaks on two conditions (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1309993.shtml). First, they can’t be Chinese, even if they’re not made in China. So, if China makes cars in Mexico, then they can’t get the $7,500 rebate from the US government. Second, no imported EV can get the rebate if it has any Chinese parts. That will basically exclude most EVs from being imported into the United States, because China is also the biggest lithium battery producer.
This isn’t about the US selling more cars than China. China is already the biggest market in the world for vehicles. I’ve already reported on this (https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffjbrown/p/watch-chinas-socialist-economy-on). It’s about trying to stop China’s ambitions for clean energy, to be the leader for green energy around the world. The US doesn’t want the Chinese to be the good guys. They want the Chinese to be the bad guys, you know, and of course, China is meeting all of its 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060 – even ahead – for all of its environmental benchmarks, going carbon neutral.
The West cannot stand the fact that China is by far the global behemoth for green energy, solar, hydroelectric, wind, electric vehicles. I realize some people don’t like nuclear, but it doesn’t produce carbon and China is also the biggest nuclear energy producer.
The West’s Big Lie Propaganda Machine is trying hard to hide all this success. Chinese EV sales so far in 2024 are up 18% over last year, but the headlines say otherwise,
Trump, I don’t blame him. That’s really all the United States can do is just slap tariffs, sanctions and boycotts. Tariffs, sanctions, boycotts. Why? The West can’t compete against China, because it’s bigger, better, faster and cheaper. When Trump is elected president, he will slap a 100% tariff on any electric vehicles that are related to China, even those made in Mexico. He welcomes China to build car factories in the USA, which is possible, like Toyota and Hyundai are doing, but the EVs won’t roll of the assembly line selling for $10,000. Ultimately, the American consumer is the one who gets the shaft.
What does Elon Musk’s Tesla do? He’s raising prices. On April 1, two days ago, he raised the cost of his cars, $1000 to $2,000 in the United States, because he has no serious competition. Until Toyota and Hyundai come on line in the future, the United States government has essentially made Musk the monopoly provider of electric cars. If there is one tactic capitalism needs to survive, that is monopoly markets.
There’s going to be some real bloodletting in China. Huawei got into electric cars a couple of years ago. In fact, you go into a Huawei phone store now, anywhere in China, and they’ve got a couple of EVs on display. And just this last week, Xiaomi, the famous phone company, piled into the EV market. It sold 90,000 units on Day One, sporting a 1,200km range, driver settings changed by facial recognition, 0-90kph in 2.7 seconds; it’s being compared to luxury cars 2-3 times its cost of US$30,000
The national market is getting saturated and the weak will not survive. This is an aspect of capitalism that really works for the people in China. Baba Beijing is going to let these private car companies duke it out, some of them are going to take a hickey, but the people are going to get better and better and cheaper electric cars.
You’re asking, how can BYD and even Xiaomi and Huawei, how can they do this? How can they produce a $10,000 electric car, when Tesla’s selling theirs for $50,000? Well, BYD has 100,000 researchers. Let that number sink in for a while. 100,000 researchers. Out of those, 1,600 have PhDs and 23,000 have Master’s Degrees. Thus, almost one fourth of BYD’s 100,000 researchers have advanced degrees. This is how China works.
The West has completely blown its opportunities for the global EV market, starting with China. There will not be any Western brands in significant numbers for some time to come. China now has six of the top global manufacturers. And get a load of this. Four of the top six Chinese EV manufacturers were not even in existence ten years ago. It’s just unbelievable.
China needs lots and lots of engineers. They are graduating 15 times as many engineers as the West is, and they’re graduating many times more Master’s and PhDs than the West. That’s how they’re innovating. Engineers with Master’s and PhDs in huge numbers doing R&D.
Did I mention innovation and invention? There is a brand-new Chinese company called IM. Never even heard of it, but they just came out with the world’s first EV using a solid-state battery (https://carnewschina.com/2024/03/25/im-l6-worlds-first-production-car-with-a-solid-state-battery/).
The United States – this is what the West does best – they make all these glorious, pie in the sky promises and nothing ever happens, because they always talk about private-public cooperation. However, the Western private sector doesn’t give a fuck about the people, their wellbeing, progress and prosperity. They don’t give a fuck about the environment, they don’t give a fuck about helping the economy. All they want is double- and triple-digit profits. If they aren’t there, they’re not going to do it. EV profits are harder work, thus they can’t make easy money, especially if they’re selling for $10,000.
Another example. Two years ago, the United States government pledged $7.5 billion to build a nationwide network of 500,000 EV charging stations by 2030. Since then, in two years, only seven have been built in four states (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1309928.shtml). That’s not a typo. The government is offering this money and only seven out of a half million have been built in four states. Twelve additional states have been awarded contracts for construction to begin, while another 17 states haven’t even submitted proposals. As this article explains, the private sector is struggling (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/05/congress-ev-chargers-billions-00129996). As a result, the United States is just 3.1% of the way to its 2030 target, only 180,000 stations. Who wants to buy an EV if you can’t get it charged? Even though a big chunk of TV ads are for EVs, this is a constant fear in France, finding a place to plug in. Not to mention that in Europe now, it’s cheaper to buy gas or diesel than charge up an EV, since all the sanctions imposed on Russia have increased electricity costs 30-50%.
I checked the Chinese web to get the real information from there. By December 2023, China had 8,600,000 charging stations. In 2023 alone, they installed 3,386,000 new charging stations for EV’s (https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1787780123125638474&wfr=spider&for=pc).
So how does China do it? China does it because it is not a capitalist country. It is a communist-socialist country, where the government has a hand in everything to help improve the economy, help improve the lives of the people, and provide what the people want and need. Baba Beijing worked furiously for the last 25 years, subsidizing the EV market, subsidizing the EV manufacturers, getting them on their feet, getting EV stations built. Of course in China, since there is no green land that is privately owned, it’s all owned by the people. There’s no problem going to local governments all over the country and getting EV infrastructure built. I see EV stations everywhere I go in China, there’s EV stations in neighborhoods.
It takes government policy, it takes government planning, it takes centralized vision to do a project as massive as electric vehicles in a country the size of China. In the neoliberal West, they talk about public-private partnership. Remember Trump saying, “We’re going to invest to one and a half trillion dollars in infrastructure, and it’s going to be public-private”! The private sector in the West, the City of London is not going to invest in infrastructure. Wall Street is not going to invest in infrastructure, except NATO building military bases all over the world. Why? Because future weapon sales have double- and triple-digit profits.
Nevertheless, in terms of helping the people in the West, that ain’t going to happen. At the same time, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, Buick, Cadillac, Lexus, Volvo, Peugeot and Renault all deserve to lose the world’s biggest, by far the biggest vehicle market in the world, and that is China, because governments in the West are controlled by the City of London, are controlled by Wall street, are controlled by their militaries, who don’t give a rat’s ass about their countries, and who don’t give a rat’s ass about their economies, and who don’t give a rat’s ass about their people.
Thus, Western EV is not going very well. There is no serious, rapid EV development in the West. It’s going to take many years, and by that time they will have been run out of China, because they don’t have EV cars to sell in China, since they don’t have many to sell back home.
Apple just abandoned its idea to develop a self-driving electric car (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68420817). At the same time, Chinese phone companies are piling into the EV market and developing self-driving cars. Why? Western companies don’t have the long-term vision needed to compete with the Chinese, something I have written about (http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/08/31/why-is-china-tech-smoking-the-west-because-they-have-socialist-vision-china-rising-radio-sinoland-170831/ . You cannot have a long-term vision for any kind of important economic, R&D, and infrastructural sector without the full support, coordination and planning between the government, the companies that are developing the products and the citizens who need them.
Capitalist countries take care of the aristocrats, the plutocrats, the 1% who control the economy, the banks, military and the elite bureaucrats. Communist-socialist countries plan their economies and develop society to help the people prosper and have a better quality of life. It’s just that simple. Take away the trillions of dollars of Western tariffs, sanctions and boycotts that are killing millions of citizens in communist-socialist countries, and your worldview would be very different. China is the first communist-socialist country that is so big and economically powerful that it can shrug off all tariffs, sanctions and boycotts.
Pictured above: Chinese government promoting EVs to the public.
The West’s capitalist dictators are scared to death you will appreciate China’s phenomenal success since 1949 and start asking why you cannot have the same development and prosperity. There is something to be said about citizens who are not looked up by their elites as merely profit points and guinea pigs.
PS: this just in. 1Q global EV sales, China has 16 of the top brand sales,
This is fucking insane. 16 out of the top 20 globally best selling electric car brands are Chinese. China just swallowed the whole cake. pic.twitter.com/dJe9zP650o
— Mandate of Heaven (@HongqiN701) April 8, 2024
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JEFF J. BROWN, Editor, China Rising, and Senior Editor & China Correspondent, Dispatch from Beijing, The Greanville Post
Jeff J. Brown is a geopolitical analyst, journalist, lecturer and the author of The China Trilogy. It consists of 44 Days Backpacking in China – The Middle Kingdom in the 21st Century, with the United States, Europe and the Fate of the World in Its Looking Glass (2013); Punto Press released China Rising – Capitalist Roads, Socialist Destinations (2016); and BIG Red Book on China (2020). As well, he published a textbook, Doctor WriteRead’s Treasure Trove to Great English (2015). Jeff is a Senior Editor & China Correspondent for The Greanville Post, where he keeps a column, Dispatch from Beijing and is a Global Opinion Leader at 21st Century. He also writes a column for The Saker, called the Moscow-Beijing Express. Jeff writes, interviews and podcasts on his own program, China Rising Radio Sinoland, which is also available on YouTube, Stitcher Radio, iTunes, Ivoox and RUvid. Guests have included Ramsey Clark, James Bradley, Moti Nissani, Godfree Roberts, Hiroyuki Hamada, The Saker and many others. [/su_spoiler]
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